DFS Moose- Weak goalies49.9
- Middle goalies48.4
- Top goalies40.2
Should you stack against a good goalie?
Not with three or more skaters. Across 512 team-games this season, a team’s five busiest skaters averaged 49.9 DraftKings points against weak goalies, 48.4 against middle goalies and 40.2 against top goalies. Goals fell the same way: 3.63, 3.27 and 2.76 a game.
A stack only pays when its team scores. A top goalie takes away about one goal in four, and every skater in the stack loses the points that came with it. So Moe never puts three skaters from one team in front of a top goalie.
| Goalie faced | Goalie score | DK points, top five | Goals a game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weak (avoid tier) | below −0.85 | 49.9 | 3.63 |
| Middle | −0.85 to 0.85 | 48.4 | 3.27 |
| Top | above 0.85 | 40.2 | 2.76 |
How the study worked
- Every NHL game from Oct 1 to Nov 6, 2026, counted once for each team: 512 team-games.
- For each team-game, the five skaters with the most ice time, usually the players a stack is built from.
- Their DraftKings points from the NHL box score: goals, assists, shots on goal and blocked shots. Short-handed bonuses aren’t in the box score, so they’re left out for every team alike.
- The goalie who started against them, rated with Moe’s goalie score and sorted into three tiers.
How Moe rates goalies
The goalie score adds up three things from last season’s numbers: the goalie’s own save percentage, how well the team shooting at him finishes (its shooting percentage), and the gap between the two teams’ points percentage. Home ice moves it 0.03 either way. Above 0.85 is a top goalie, below −0.85 is one to avoid, and everything between is the middle.
The score is run for every expected starter on the slate, opponents included, and again once the starters are confirmed.
Did it hold up?
The score’s weights were fitted on October games, which could flatter October. Two checks say it isn’t only that: top goalies were the lowest tier in both halves of October, and again from Nov 1 to 6, the first week the score had never seen.
Big slates and small slates
On big slates (six games or more), weak and middle goalies gave up the same: 49.7 and 49.8 points. There the edge is only in staying away from top goalies.
On small slates (five games or fewer) the gaps were wider: 50.4 points against weak goalies, 45.4 against middle and 39.6 against top. On a small slate, Moe’s main stack faces the weakest confirmed goalie on the board.
What Moe does with it
- At most two skaters from any team facing a top goalie.
- On small slates, the main stack faces an avoid-tier goalie.
- Moe never rosters an avoid-tier goalie.
- Goalies are checked again about 30 minutes before lock, since a late change can move a team from one tier to another.
Every lineup built with these rules is in Moe’s results log, cashes and misses alike.
What it doesn’t prove
Five weeks is a short window, and one hot or cold goalie can move a tier’s average. The score gets re-fit with this season’s numbers in mid-December, and this page will show the new run beside this one.